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The choice of significance level in hypothesis testing

The significance level, usually written as \alpha , is the threshold for how much evidence you require before rejecting the null hypothesis.

It is the probability of making a Type I error:

\alpha = P(\text{reject } H_0 \mid H_0 \text{ is true})

So choosing α is really choosing how much risk of a false positive you are willing to accept.

Common Choices

Here’s how researchers typically choose α:

α levelInterpretationWhen used
0.05Standard balance between caution and sensitivityMost social science, education, psychology
0.01Very strict; strong evidence requiredMedical trials, safety‑critical fields
0.10More lenient; easier to detect effectsExploratory studies, early‑stage research

How to Think About Choosing α

1. Consequences of a Type I Error

Ask: What happens if we falsely claim an effect exists?

  • If the consequences are serious (e.g., approving a harmful drug), choose a small α like 0.01 or 0.001.
  • If the consequences are minor (e.g., testing a new teaching method), α = 0.05 is usually fine.

2. Consequences of a Type II Error

Ask: What happens if we miss a real effect?

  • If missing an effect is costly (e.g., failing to detect a dangerous defect), you might choose a larger α like 0.10 to increase power.

This is the classic trade‑off:
Lower α → fewer false positives but more false negatives
Higher α → more false positives but fewer false negatives

3. Field Standards

Different disciplines have different norms:

Medicine, genetics, engineering: α = 0.01 or smaller
Psychology, education, business: α = 0.05
Exploratory research: α = 0.10

Students often think α = 0.05 is a law of nature — but it’s just a convention.

4. Sample Size and Power

If your sample size is small, lowering α too much can make it nearly impossible to detect real effects.

  • Small sample → α = 0.05 is usually more practical
  • Large sample → you can afford α = 0.01 without losing too much power
See also  Bonferroni correction - What It Is and Why It Matters

5. Multiple Comparisons

If you run many tests, the chance of a Type I error increases.
In those cases, you might:

  • Lower α
  • Use Bonferroni or Holm corrections
  • Control the false discovery rate

This keeps your overall error rate under control.

Fresh, Original Examples

🧪 Example 1: Medical Trial

Testing whether a new drug reduces blood pressure.

  • A false positive could harm patients.
  • Researchers choose α = 0.01.

📚 Example 2: Classroom Intervention

A teacher tests whether a new reading program improves scores.

  • A false positive is not dangerous.
  • α = 0.05 is reasonable.

🏭 Example 3: Factory Safety Sensor

A sensor detects overheating in machinery.

  • Missing a real overheating event is dangerous.
  • They choose α = 0.10 to reduce Type II errors.

The Big Idea

Choosing α is not about math — it’s about risk management.

You’re deciding:

  • How cautious you want to be
  • What kinds of mistakes matter most
  • How much evidence you require before making a claim

It’s a judgment call, not a formula.

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