1 in 42,372: The Brutal Mathematics of Norwegian Tinder

If anyone tells you dating is an art, they are lying. It is a ruthless mathematical equation, and the numbers are completely out to get you. Here is the exact calculation of your doom, laid out for your viewing pleasure.

The Swipe Filter: You have standards, so you only swipe right on 1 out of every 50 guys.
$P(\text{Swipe}) = \frac{1}{50} = 0.02$
The Couch Potato Filter: Converting a digital match into a guy who will make you abandon your sofa to meet him in person is another 1 in 50.
$P(\text{Meet}) = \frac{1}{50} = 0.02$
The Vibe Check Filter: The odds of you tolerating his cross-country skiing stories enough to agree to a second date is 1 in 10.
$P(\text{Date 2}) = \frac{1}{10} = 0.10$
The Loyalty Filter: Assuming the grim 41% infidelity rate, you have a 59% chance he won’t betray you later.
$P(\text{Loyal}) = 1.00 - 0.41 = 0.59$

To find the cumulative probability of one single Tinder profile surviving this gauntlet and becoming your loyal boyfriend, we multiply these independent variables together:
$P(\text{Success}) = 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.10 \times 0.59 = 0.0000236$
That leaves you with a 0.00236% chance per profile, which translates to exactly 1 in 42,372.

If you want to tip the scales to a mere 50/50 probability of finding this needle in the digital haystack, we use the cumulative probability formula to solve for $n$ , representing the number of profiles you must evaluate:
$1 - (1 - 0.0000236)^n = 0.50$
$(0.9999764)^n = 0.50$
$n = \frac{\ln(0.50)}{\ln(0.9999764)}$
$n \approx 29,370$
You must evaluate precisely 29,370 men just to achieve a coin flip’s chance at love. Better start warming up your swiping thumb.